Vaultwarden (Gap: 12%) is currently delivering Bitwarden's original promise better than Bitwarden itself. While Bitwarden (Gap: 22%) chases CIOs and MSPs with a 'Corporate Bloat' strategy, Vaultwarden has captured the 'Consumer Surplus' by offering enterprise-grade utility for free. The data is stark: Bitwarden wins the bank account, but Vaultwarden has won the user's heart.

The Divergence

The divergence is anchored in 'Legitimacy' vs. 'Loyalty.' Bitwarden's attention profile is deteriorating into 'Viral Noise' (Quality Score: 45%) driven by backlash against UI changes and pricing fears. Conversely, Vaultwarden's 'Viral Noise' is positive advocacy, yet it suffers a critical lack of 'High-Trust' sources (only 2), trapping it in the hobbyist tier. Bitwarden is trading reputation for revenue; Vaultwarden is hoarding reputation with no mechanism to capture value.

The Prediction

Bitwarden faces a 'Digg v4' moment. If the Alignment Gap widens past 25%, the 'Evangelist Class' will defect en masse to Proton Pass, leaving Bitwarden as a hollowed-out enterprise shell. Vaultwarden remains the moral victor but is one maintainer-burnout away from extinction. The market is begging for a middle ground that neither is currently providing.

The Threat

Bitwarden faces a Critical Threat Level (92%) from Proton Pass. The attention data confirms Bitwarden's vulnerability: with an Attention Efficiency of only 34%, they are burning capital to reach an audience that is actively looking for alternatives. The 'Viral Noise' quadrant suggests their volume is high, but the sentiment is shallow and increasingly hostile.

Delta Engine Strategic Fix

Strategy VS Vaultwarden

"Formalize Trust"

Action

Establish a legal foundation to fund a third-party security audit immediately.

Attention Fix

Convert 'Medium Trust' forum chatter into 'High Trust' verified security reviews to escape the hobbyist perception.

Strategy VS Bitwarden

"Reconnect Roots"

Action

Open-source the roadmap and revert the controversial UI elements to stem the bleeding.

Attention Fix

Shift focus from broad 'Reach' marketing to deep technical 'Depth' content to rebuild authority with the core user base.